probabilistic judgements about habitability

I had a long conversation this morning with Rix and Lisa Kaltenegger (MPIA) about how you would losslessly propagate observational noise in exoplanet observations into probabilistic judgements about habitability. We decided to take a principled (Bayesian, hierarchical) approach in setting up the problem and then to make approximations as necessary to make the calculation possible given current knowledge and technology. We worked through the problem in the form of a probabilistic graphical model, and then discussed how to translate that PGM into code. And then sample it.

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