Last semester, I started a project with Anu Raghunathan (NYU) on the question of how much more sensitive we could be to planets in resonances than we are in more blind searches. My loyal reader knows that I'm interested in this. I think it has a simple answer, but even if it does, some playing in this statistical sandbox is fun. Today Raghunathan and I realized that we can generate a whole set of great results around box least squares, which is the dumb (but very effective, and very easy-to-analyze; I'm a fan) method that is used to generate candidate exoplanets in many transit surveys and searches. My vague idea is to use this as a place to understand multiple hypothesis testing (the physicists' “look-elsewhere effect”) and derive analytic false-positive rates for simple noise distributions, with searches of different kinds in data of different kinds.
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