Ed Turner (Princeton) spent the day at NYU; we spoke about many things, from statistics to reductionism. He gave a nice seminar about abiogenesis—the emergence of life on the lifeless early Earth—which happened very early after the last surface-melting impacts. This implies, at some level, that abiogenesis at Earth conditions ought to be fairly likely. But that is complicated by anthropic-like issues and the single-number statistics involved. He applies Bayes' theorem and some uninformative priors to show that the data (or datum, really) does imply, weakly, a high rate of abiogenesis at Earth conditions. Turner's talk was followed by discussions with Bovy and Foreman-Mackey about projects.