2012-12-26

exoplanet statistics

On the plane to Tucson, I spent a few minutes trying to formalize a few ideas about limiting cases we might find in exoplanet population statistics, which we can use to build intuition about our full probabilistic inference. The first is that if the mutual inclinations are low (very low), the observed tranet (a transiting planet is a tranet) multiplicity distribution translates very simply (by geometric factors) into the true planet multiplicity distribution. The second is that if the multiplicity is high, the observed tranet multiplicity distribution constrains a ratio of the true planet multiplicity to the mutual inclination distribution width. The third is that if the multiplicity could somehow found to be dynamically maximal (if that is even possible to define), then the tranet multiplicity distribution translates very simply into the true planet mutual inclination distribution. I am not sure that any of this is useful or even correct.

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