2021-03-18

predicting the future of a periodic variable star

Gaby Contardo (Flatiron) showed me an amazingly periodic star from the NASA Kepler data a few days ago, and today she showed me the results of trying to predict points in the light curve from prior points in the light curve (like in a recurrent method). When the star is very close to periodic, and when the region of the star used to predict a new data point is comparable in length to the period or longer, then even linear regression does a great job! This all relates to auto-regressive processes.

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